All Aboard the Oriental Express
Turkey had signaled that it wished to remain in Afghanistan, to provide security at the Hamid Khazi International airport, ‘HKIA’ for the Ashrif Ghani regime, after the US said it was time to go. Now it seems set to, after the Taliban’s victory.
Turkey is a bell weather of the emerging Eurasian alliance. Historically a rival of Russia, it appears it was the attempted July 2016 coup and Erdogan’s belief that it was orchestrated by the Israeli’s, with the tacit backing of the US, that pushed him into the Russian orbit. Southstream, the Russia-Europe gas pipeline which was to be via Orthodox Bulgaria but was scuppered by the EU in 2015, became Turkstream in December 2016.
Patriot missiles were now of no use to Erdogan, as beyond the US being capable of switching them of, any US planes have built in counter measures to US missiles. Turkey is in the process of buying its second tranche of s400 systems and as the price of the s400’s was being booted out of the F35 program, it is clear its military think that s400 bracketing defeats stealth. They will have noticed that the Israelis have not chanced their arm with a F35 within Syria and all their attacks, since the Russians upgraded Syrian air defences, have been stand-off.
For the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, having the Turks and Qatari’s run HKIA makes a lot of sense. A new and revolutionary government has a lot to do. More importantly, Turkey has its ambitions. Bringing it in as a key player in the emerging regional coalition, greatly strengthens the new block and there is no doubt Moscow has given the nod.
seems to have questioned the slaughter of the faithful. This appears to have been the reason for their dramatic falling out with the House of Saud. This shift aligns with the Taliban’s apparent move away from sectarianism. More tolerant Pakistan’s role in all this is unknown, but it is probably significant. Without Pakistan, it is doubtful the Taliban could have survived. Pakistan has the second largest Muslim population in the world and importantly a Shia majority in the strategic Gilgit region. Sunni Qatar co-operates with Shia Iran on their shared gas fields and may end up being an outpost of the emerging block.
With Qatar onboard, a Dubai vs Doha rivalry also raises its head. The UAE had been running HKIA. Along with Turkey it was one of the few Muslim countries to send troops to Afghanistan and it does not have the excuse that it was part of NATO. Although Turkey committed many more troops, with a casualty rate of .35% they seem to have been kept out of much combat. We will probably never know how much, if anything, the new Emirate will give the UAE to break the contract with the old regime, but one thing is sure, saving face costs money.
There is an economic dimension, as always. The US and Europe monopolise long haul aircraft manufacture. This makes regional centres all the more important for Russia and China, with their short-haul fleets. With a population of 4 million, Kabul is a region centre, although it is rivalled by the comparative and nearby Islamabad metropolitan area.
Despite attempts to sanction it, the Russian MC-21 was the showpiece at the 2019 MAKS air show. Tellingly, the air show was formally opened by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With a range of 3,730 miles, from Kabul it can reach Moscow and Beijing together with London and Jakarta, at a squeeze. It is scheduled to be certified by the end of 2121 and deliveries are planned for 2022.
Dubai International is currently the second busiest airport after Schiphol, with many passing from India and Pakistan. Its targeted 28 million passengers this year could take a hit if the faithful fly Turk or Qatari. In both Qatar and Turkey, being fidel defensor is important. Qatar is the main financial contributor to Gaza and the Flotilla sailed from Turkey. This does not go unnoticed. With a new regional Muslim block emerging, aligned with Russia and China, UAE’s treaty with Israel may cost it some business.
The Daily Lama 